Strategic Waiting and the Human Security Implications of Serbia’s Militarization

Serbia’s contemporary military buildup is commonly framed by its leadership as a defensive response to a deteriorating regional security environment. This article advances a different interpretation. It argues that Serbia’s militarization reflects a strategy of strategic waiting: the preservation of coercive capacity in anticipation of possible future geopolitical change that could weaken current constraints on the use of force in the Western Balkans. While this posture does not imply preparation for immediate war, it has significant implications for human security. By normalizing militarized solutions to unresolved political questions—most notably Kosovo’s status—it increases the risk of crisis escalation, undermines trust, and exposes civilian populations to renewed insecurity. The danger lies less in deliberate aggression than in miscalculation under conditions of perceived opportunity.